| WEDNESDAY, JULY 15 | ||
| 8 AM - 5:30 PM | VIM Pre-Conference Workshop | |
| 6:15-7:30 PM | Welcome Reception, Kellogg Center | |
| THURSDAY, JULY 16 | ||
| 7:30-8:30 AM | Breakfast + Welcome/Orientation | Big Ten A |
| 7:30 AM-12:00 PM | Registration | Outside Big Ten rooms |
| 8:45-10:15 AM | Panel Session 1 (3 parallel panels) | |
| 10:15-10:30 AM | Coffee Break | South lobby |
| 10:30 AM-12:00 PM | Panel Session 2 (3 parallel panels) | |
| 12:00-1:00 PM | Lunch | Big Ten B / East Patio |
| 1:15-2:45 PM | Panel Session 3 (3 parallel panels) | |
| 2:45-3:00 PM | Coffee Break | South lobby |
| 3:00-4:30 PM | Panel Session 4 (3 parallel panels) | |
| 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 (62 posters) | Big Ten C |
| 7:30-9:00 PM | Social Event (dinner and drinks provided) | MSU Broad Art Museum |
| FRIDAY, JULY 17 | ||
| 7:30-8:45 AM | Breakfast | Big Ten A |
| 7:45-8:45 AM | SPM Business Meeting (all attendees welcome) | Big Ten A |
| 7:30 AM-12:00 PM | Registration | Outside Big Ten rooms |
| 9:00-10:30 AM | Panel Session 5 (3 parallel panels) | |
| 10:30-10:45 AM | Coffee Break | South lobby |
| 10:45 AM-12:15 PM | Panel Session 6 (3 parallel panels) | |
| 12:30-1:30 PM | Lunch | Big Ten B / East Patio |
| 1:45-3:15 PM | Panel Session 7 (2 panels + IPPSR Panel) | |
| 3:15-3:30 PM | Coffee Break | South lobby |
| 3:30-5:00 PM | Panel Session 8 (3 parallel panels) | |
| 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 (62 posters) | Big Ten C |
| 7:00 PM | Dinner on your own | |
| 7:30 PM | Small-Group Dinners with Faculty Hosts (by lottery invitation) | Local restaurants |
| SATURDAY, JULY 18 | ||
| 7:45-9:00 AM | Breakfast Plenary: Political Analysis Community Forum on AI, Research & Publishing (Daniel Hopkins) | Big Ten A |
| 9:00-10:30 AM | Panel Session 9 (4 parallel panels) | |
| 10:30-11:00 AM | Coffee Break | South lobby |
| 11:00 AM-12:30 PM | Panel Session 10 (3 parallel panels) |
| Room assignments will be posted at registration and on signage outside the session rooms. | ||
| Thursday, July 16 | ||
| 7:30-8:30 AM | Breakfast + Welcome/Orientation | Big Ten A |
| 7:30 AM-12:00 PM | Registration | Outside Big Ten rooms |
| 8:45-10:15 AM | Panel Session 1 | |
| Panel 1A (Room TBD): Observational Causal Inference | ||
| 1. Nonparametric Estimation of Local Treatment Effects with Continuous Instruments | ||
| Zhenghao Zeng, Alexander Levis, JungHo Lee, Edward Kennedy, Luke Keele [presenter: Luke Keele] | ||
| 2. Observational Causal Inference with Latent Covariate-Instrument Pairs | ||
| Marco Morucci [presenter: Marco Morucci] | ||
| Discussant: Melody Huang (Yale University) | ||
| Panel 1B (Room TBD): Validity in Text-Based Measurement | ||
| 1. C-TreePO: Design-Based Partial-Document Supervision for Long-Document Political Measurement | ||
| Mitchell Linegar [presenter: Mitchell Linegar] | ||
| 2. Measuring Latent Quantities from Text Embeddings | ||
| Joseph Ornstein [presenter: Joseph Ornstein] | ||
| Discussant: Max Goplerud (University of Texas at Austin) | ||
| Panel 1C (Room TBD): Surveys and Eyetracking | ||
| 1. Reading Between the Eyes: Recovering (Political) Identity from Eye-Tracking Weak Signal | ||
| Elena Sirotkina [presenter: Elena Sirotkina] | ||
| 2. Read It or Ignore It? A Personality-Conditioned Computational Model of Gaze Behavior in Political Advertising | ||
| Sunny Yang [presenter: Sunny Yang] | ||
| Discussant: Gustavo Diaz (Northwestern University) | ||
| 10:15-10:30 AM | Coffee Break | South lobby |
| 10:30 AM-12:00 PM | Panel Session 2 | |
| Panel 2A (Room TBD): Audio/Video | ||
| 1. Audio as Data: Measuring Audio Categories and Objects in Political Communication | ||
| Yingdan Lu, Haohang Xin, Annie Chu, Yilang Peng, Cuihua Shen [presenter: Yingdan Lu] | ||
| 2. Hearing Democracy: Audio-Based Classification of Speakers in City Council Meetings Using Multimodal LLMs | ||
| Menglin Liu, Jinghong Sophia Wang [presenter: Menglin (Miley) Liu] | ||
| Discussant: Dean Knox (University of Pennsylvania) | ||
| Panel 2B (Room TBD): Surveys for Preferences | ||
| 1. (Mis)Estimating Spatial Preferences With Standard Survey Items | ||
| Scott Abramson, Thomas Chamberlain, Dot Sawler [presenter: Dot Sawler] | ||
| 2. Representativeness of Policy Preferences in Survey Data for American Politics Research: Evidence from Cast Vote Records | ||
| Lonna Atkeson, Yimeng Li [presenter: Lonna Atkeson] | ||
| Discussant: Daniel Hopkins (University of Pennsylvania) | ||
| Panel 2C (Room TBD): Spatial Analysis | ||
| 1. Territorial Contraction: Far-Right Mobilization and Routine Civic Mobility in American Neighborhoods | ||
| Wei Zhong, Yongjun Zhang, Yeqian Xu [presenter: Wei Zhong] | ||
| 2. Co-Localization Research Designs for Point Pattern Data | ||
| Jason Byers, Marty Davidson [presenter: Marty Davidson] | ||
| Discussant: Cory McCartan (Pennsylvania State University) | ||
| 12:00-1:00 PM | Lunch | Big Ten B / East Patio |
| 1:15-2:45 PM | Panel Session 3 | |
| Panel 3A (Room TBD): Causal Inference in Urban Politics | ||
| 1. Monitoring Racial Bias in Police Traffic Enforcement with Noisy Proxies of Driver Behavior | ||
| Kai Cooper, Gregory Lanzalotto, Haosen Ge, Jacob Kaplan, Scott Desposato, Dean Knox, Jonathan Mummolo [presenter: Dean Knox] | ||
| 2. Exposure to Homelessness and Support for Policy Remedies | ||
| Jacob Brown, Adrian Pietrzak, Alexander Sahn [presenter: Jacob Brown] | ||
| Discussant: Naoki Egami (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) | ||
| Panel 3B (Room TBD): Geo-"graph"-y | ||
| 1. Extending Merge-Split Sampling for Redistricting to Multiple Districts | ||
| Christopher T. Kenny [presenter: Christopher Kenny] | ||
| 2. Algorithmic Zoning: Evaluating Municipal Compliance with State Housing Mandates | ||
| F. Daniel Hidalgo, Asya Magazinnik [presenter: F. Daniel Hidalgo] | ||
| Discussant: Shiro Kuriwaki (Yale University) | ||
| Panel 3C (Room TBD): Measurement in Text | ||
| 1. He Said, She Said, He Said: Topic Modeling with Transcripts with Multiple Speakers | ||
| Taylor Hvidsten, Sarah Musgrave, Jane L. Sumner [presenter: Jane Sumner] | ||
| 2. Who Influences Whom? Analyzing the Interplay of Mainstream and Outsider Parties in Social Media Campaigns | ||
| Valentina Gonzalez-Rostani, Claudia Salas Gimenez [presenter: Valentina Gonzalez-Rostani and Claudia Salas Gimenez] | ||
| Discussant: Andy Halterman (Michigan State University) | ||
| Panel 3D (Room TBD): Sensitivity | ||
| 1. Sensitive Moderation: A Sensitivity Analysis Framework for Interaction Effects with Endogenous Moderators | ||
| Carlos Felipe Balcazar, James Bisbee [presenter: James Bisbee] | ||
| 2. Omitted variable sensitivity analyses for differences-in-differences when parallel trends holds conditional on covariates | ||
| Anton Strezhnev [presenter: Anton Strezhnev] | ||
| Discussant: Yiqing Xu (Stanford University) | ||
| 2:45-3:00 PM | Coffee Break | South lobby |
| 3:00-4:30 PM | Panel Session 4 | |
| Panel 4A (Room TBD): Video as Data | ||
| 1. GenAI Powered Causal Inference with Video Data | ||
| Kentaro Nakamura, Adam Breuer, Bryce Dietrich, Mike Crespin, Kosuke Imai [presenter: Kosuke Imai] | ||
| 2. Harsh Words and Taut Gestures: A Multimodal Look at Emotional Dynamics When the Far Right Enters Parliament | ||
| Christian Arnold, Andreas Kuepfer, Christian Stecker [presenter: Christian Arnold] | ||
| Discussant: Christopher Lucas (Washington University in St. Louis) | ||
| Panel 4B (Room TBD): AI as Method | ||
| 1. LLMs as research collaborators? Assessing when and how LLMs contribute to social science research pipelines | ||
| Sofia Serrano, Sarah K. Dreier, Lucy H. Lin, Emily K. Gade [presenter: Sarah Dreier] | ||
| 2. Scaling Reproducibility: An AI-Assisted Workflow for Large-Scale Replication and Reanalysis | ||
| Yiqing Xu, Leo Yang Yang [presenter: Yiqing Xu] | ||
| Discussant: Eddie Yang (Purdue University) | ||
| Panel 4C (Room TBD): Attrition | ||
| 1. Randomization Inference for the Always-Reporter Treatment Effect | ||
| Haoge Chang, Zeyang Yu [presenter: Zeyang Yu] | ||
| 2. Missing at random with overlap violations | ||
| Naijia Liu, Hanning Luo [presenter: Naijia Liu] | ||
| Discussant: Amanda Weiss (Cornell University) | ||
| 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Big Ten C |
| 7:30-9:00 PM | Social Event at the MSU Broad Art Museum (dinner and drinks provided) | |
| Friday, July 17 | ||
| 7:30-8:45 AM | Breakfast | Big Ten A |
| 7:45-8:45 AM | SPM Business Meeting (all attendees welcome) | Big Ten A |
| 7:30 AM-12:00 PM | Registration | Outside Big Ten rooms |
| 9:00-10:30 AM | Panel Session 5 | |
| Panel 5A (Room TBD): Experimental Design and Randomization Inference | ||
| 1. A Simple Randomization Test for Interference | ||
| Ye Wang, Weihan Zhang [presenter: Ye Wang] | ||
| 2. Pilot-Assisted Sample Size Calculation for Randomized Experiments | ||
| Soichiro Yamauchi [presenter: Soichiro Yamauchi] | ||
| Discussant: Adeline Lo (University of Wisconsin-Madison) | ||
| Panel 5B (Room TBD): Advances in Bayesian Methods | ||
| 1. Modeling Ordinal Survey Data with Unfolding Models | ||
| Rayleigh Lei, Abel Rodriguez [presenter: Rayleigh Lei] | ||
| 2. Bayesian Propensity Score-Augmented Latent Factor Models for Causal Inference with Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data | ||
| Licheng Liu [presenter: Licheng Liu] | ||
| Discussant: Justin Esarey (Wake Forest University) | ||
| Panel 5C (Room TBD): LLMs, Annotators, and LLM Annotators | ||
| 1. Understanding Racial Bias in LLM-Based Automated Essay Scoring Systems | ||
| Masha Krupenkin [presenter: Masha Krupenkin] | ||
| 2. Aggregating Correlated LLM Annotators Without Ground Truth Labels | ||
| Adam Bouyamourn, Arthur Spirling [presenter: Adam Bouyamourn] | ||
| Discussant: Keng-Chi Chang (Dartmouth College) | ||
| 10:30-10:45 AM | Coffee Break | South lobby |
| 10:45 AM-12:15 PM | Panel Session 6 | |
| Panel 6A (Room TBD): Monitoring Big Tech | ||
| 1. Methods for Platform Accountability: TikTok's Ownership Change and Moderation of Political Content | ||
| Keng-Chi Chang, Solomon Messing, Benjamin Guinaudeau, Hennes Barnehl, Andreu Casas, Kylan Rutherford, Joshua A. Tucker, Margaret E. Roberts [presenter: Margaret Roberts] | ||
| 2. Measuring Perceived Slant in Large Language Models Through User Evaluations | ||
| Sean Westwood, Justin Grimmer, Andrew Hall, Bailey Flanigan, Jiehan Liu [presenter: Bailey Flanigan] | ||
| Discussant: Chendi Wang (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) | ||
| Panel 6B (Room TBD): Aggregate Data | ||
| 1. Sampling Solutions to the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem | ||
| Jacob Brown, Christopher Kenny, Tyler Simko [presenter: Tyler Simko] | ||
| 2. Identification and Semiparametric Estimation of Conditional Means from Aggregate Data | ||
| Cory McCartan, Shiro Kuriwaki [presenter: Cory McCartan] | ||
| Discussant: Walter Mebane (University of Michigan) | ||
| Panel 6C (Room TBD): AI and the Survey Instrument | ||
| 1. Automated Cognitive Debriefing | ||
| Musashi Hinck, Gary King, Kentaro Nakamura, Brandon M. Stewart [presenter: Brandon M. Stewart] | ||
| 2. Measuring Affective Polarization in Text: Translating Survey Instruments into Natural Language Inference Tasks | ||
| Sean Peters [presenter: Sean Peters] | ||
| Discussant: Jacob Montgomery (Washington University in St. Louis) | ||
| 12:30-1:30 PM | Lunch | Big Ten B / East Patio |
| 1:45-3:15 PM | Panel Session 7 | |
| Panel 7A (Room TBD): Inference and Time | ||
| 1. Unit Root Inference for Latent Processes in Noisy Time Series | ||
| Suzanna Linn, Quincy Julian Clarke, Christine Semeniuk, Clayton Webb [presenter: Suzanna Linn] | ||
| 2. Identification and Inference in Event-During-Survey Designs | ||
| Yusaku Horiuchi, Guoer Liu, Jieun Oh, Yuki Shiraito [presenter: Jieun Oh] | ||
| Discussant: Licheng Liu (University of Michigan) | ||
| Panel 7B (Room TBD): Political Influence (Functions) | ||
| 1. Constructing influence sets for heterogeneous treatment effect models | ||
| Ana Kenney, Melody Huang, Tiffany Tang [presenter: Melody Huang] | ||
| 2. Case Selection and Confounder Discovery with the Influence Function | ||
| Austin Jang, Amanda Weiss [presenter: Amanda Weiss] | ||
| Discussant: Erin Hartman (University of California, Berkeley) | ||
| Panel 7C (Room TBD): IPPSR Panel | ||
| Sponsored session organized by the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research (IPPSR), Michigan State University | ||
| Chair: Matt Grossmann (Michigan State University) | ||
| Speakers: Iliya Liampert (Michigan State University), Caleb Lucas (Indiana University Bloomington), Josh McCrain (University of Utah), Benjamin Yoel (Michigan State University) | ||
| 3:15-3:30 PM | Coffee Break | South lobby |
| 3:30-5:00 PM | Panel Session 8 | |
| Panel 8A (Room TBD): Conjoints | ||
| 1. External Validity and Video-based Conjoints: A Study of Candidate Choice | ||
| Nidhi Banavar, Kirk Bansak, Nilou Davis, Jens Hainmueller, Daniel J. Hopkins, Teppei Yamamoto [presenter: Daniel Hopkins] | ||
| 2. Disentangling Causal Mechanisms in Conjoint Experiments Using Mediation | ||
| Michaël Aklin, Max Goplerud, Nicole Pashley, Jenna Salzman [presenter: Max Goplerud] | ||
| Discussant: Adam Berinsky (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) | ||
| Panel 8B (Room TBD): LLM Annotations | ||
| 1. From Annotation to Measurement: Traceable Workflows for LLM Inference | ||
| Yuehong Cassandra Tai, Qunhua Li [presenter: Cassandra Tai] | ||
| 2. Data Annotation with Large Language Models: Lessons from a Large Empirical Evaluation | ||
| Eddie Yang, Zoey Wang, Carl Zhou, Yaosheng Xu [presenter: Eddie Yang] | ||
| Discussant: Sunny Yang (Northeastern University) | ||
| Panel 8C (Room TBD): New Approaches to Measurement | ||
| 1. From Dollars to Ideal Points: Adjusting Campaign Finance Scalings for Dropout | ||
| Cassandra Handan-Nader, Janet Malzahn, Andrew C.W. Myers [presenter: Cassandra Handan-Nader] | ||
| 2. Topology for Social Science | ||
| Caterina Chiopris [presenter: Caterina Chiopris] | ||
| Discussant: Joseph Ornstein (University of Georgia) | ||
| 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Big Ten C |
| 7:00 PM | Dinner on your own | |
| 7:30 PM | Small-Group Dinners with Faculty Hosts | By lottery invitation; local restaurants |
| Saturday, July 18 | ||
| 7:45-9:00 AM | Breakfast Plenary: Political Analysis Community Forum on AI, Research & Publishing (Daniel Hopkins) | Big Ten A |
| 9:00-10:30 AM | Panel Session 9 | |
| Panel 9A (Room TBD): Methods for Algorithmic Decision-Making | ||
| 1. Safe AI-Powered Interventions via Conformal Policy Learning | ||
| Ying Jin, Naoki Egami [presenter: Naoki Egami] | ||
| 2. Triage Score: A Counterfactual Risk Assessment Instrument | ||
| Kosuke Imai, Sooahn Shin, D. James Greiner, Ryan Halen [presenter: Sooahn Shin] | ||
| Discussant: Molly Offer-Westort (University of Chicago) | ||
| Panel 9B (Room TBD): LLMs in Politics | ||
| 1. The Persuasiveness of Artificial Intelligence: AI Interventions Increase Confidence in Election Integrity | ||
| Mitchell Linegar, Betsy Sinclair, Sander van der Linden, R. Michael Alvarez [presenter: Michael Alvarez] | ||
| 2. Political Help Desks: Measuring How Citizens Use LLMs in Politics and Civic Life | ||
| Ziwen Zu [presenter: Ziwen Zu] | ||
| 3. Directional Hallucinations: Ideological Drift in News-Grounded LLM Question Answering | ||
| Chendi Wang, Tom Yishay, Liam Cunningham, Jieying Chen [presenter: Chendi Wang] | ||
| Discussant: Margaret Roberts (University of California, San Diego) | ||
| Panel 9C (Room TBD): State Presence and State Performance | ||
| 1. Dual-Capacity Signaling: How Police Show Regime Strength on Douyin | ||
| Yiqiang Wang, Haohan Chen, Yingqi Huang [presenter: Haohan Chen] | ||
| 2. Building State Capacity Locally: International Interventions, Delegation, and Local Governance in Fragile States | ||
| Annamaria Prati [presenter: Annamaria Prati] | ||
| Discussant: Nina McMurry (Vanderbilt University) | ||
| Panel 9D (Room TBD): Electoral Systems | ||
| 1. Quantifying Group-Based Electoral Competitiveness | ||
| Yuki Atsusaka, Diana Da In Lee, Hane Lee [presenter: Diana Da In Lee] | ||
| 2. A Generatively Accurate, Unified Method of Evaluating Electoral Systems | ||
| Danny Ebanks, Jonathan N. Katz, Gary King [presenter: Danny Ebanks] | ||
| Discussant: F. Daniel Hidalgo (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) | ||
| 10:30-11:00 AM | Coffee Break | South lobby |
| 11:00 AM-12:30 PM | Panel Session 10 | |
| Panel 10A (Room TBD): Survey Dynamics | ||
| 1. Who's to Blame for Survey Instability: Respondents with Nonexistent Preferences or Researchers with Flawed Measures? | ||
| Libby Jenke, Gary King [presenter: Gary King] | ||
| 2. When are Polling Differences True Public Opinion Change?: Decomposing Changes Across Surveys | ||
| Erin Hartman [presenter: Erin Hartman] | ||
| Discussant: Kirk Bansak (University of California, Berkeley) | ||
| Panel 10B (Room TBD): Seeing What Official Data Misses: Visual Measurement for Social Science | ||
| 1. Missing Women on Indian Streets | ||
| Varun Karekurve-Ramachandra, Gaurav Sood [presenter: Varun Karekurve Ramachandra] | ||
| 2. From Pixels to Perspectives: Annotator Bias in Visual Sentiment Analysis of Political Imagery | ||
| Olga Gasparyan, Elena Sirotkina [presenter: Olga Gasparyan] | ||
| Discussant: Kosuke Imai (Harvard University) | ||
| Your poster session and time slot. Board numbers and discussant assignments are being finalized and will be added. | |||||
| Day | Time | Poster Session | Presenter | Author(s) | Poster Title |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Scott Abramson | Scott Abramson, Kirill Kazantcev | Individual Sensitive Forecasts |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Ali Amini | Ali Amini | Artificial Polarization: Evidence from Bayesian Benchmarking of Large Language Models |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Anastasiia Andreeva | Anastasiia Andreeva | The Political Afterlife of the Gulag: Repression, Behavioral Path Dependence, and the Long Shadow of Soviet Terror |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Michael Auslen | Michael Auslen | Issue Opinions in the U.S. States |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Ramses Llobet Bentarif | Ramses Llobet Bentarif | Addressing Measurement Error Bias in Grouped Continuous Data for Causal Inferences |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Matteo Bertoli | Matteo Bertoli | Populism is Self-Reinforcing and Extremism is Self-Undermining |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Frederick Boehmke | Frederick J. Boehmke, Taylor Tokos | Some Considerations for Regression Analysis of Legislative Effectiveness Scores |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Alice Brocheux | Scott F Abramson, Alice Brocheux | Strategic Behavior and the Limits of Algorithmic Gerrymandering Detection |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Michael Burnham | Michael Burnham | RosettaEmbed: Interpretable text embeddings through distillation and translation |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Jieun Byeon | Jieun Byeon, Dawoon Jung | Framing Conflict: Leveraging Large Language Models for Cross-National Media Framing Analysis |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Raquel Centeno | Raquel Centeno; R. Michael Alvarez | Assessing 2024 Confidence in Elections Across Racial and Ethnic Groups |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Laura Chelidonopoulos | Laura Chelidonopoulos | Punished but Not Defeated: Economic Shocks and Incumbent Survival in Brazil |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Tyler Rongxuan Chen | Tyler Rongxuan Chen | Seeing the Trees through the Forest: Ecological Inference for Demographic Voting Behavior under Polarization and Survey Nonresponse |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Q. J. Clarke | Q. J. Clarke | A Cohesion-Brokerage Index for Legislative Networks: Examining the Role of Intersectional Coalition Formation in Congress |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Kai Cooper | Kai Cooper, Dean Knox | A Formal Causal Perspective on Outcome Tests for Discrimination |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Austin Cutler | Lonna Rae Atkeson, Austin Lloyd Cutler, Yimeng Li | Calibration Weighting, Matching, or Multilevel Regression with Poststratification? A Validation Study |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Thomas Dainty | Thomas Dainty | Rebel Foreign Aid Targeting Amid Natural Disaster Recovery |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Gustavo Diaz | Gustavo Diaz, Ines Fynn, Veronica Perez Bentancur, Lucia Tiscornia | Recovering Informative Estimates in Failed Placebo-Controlled List Experiments |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Marli Dunietz | Marli Dunietz | When in Doubt, it is Probably AI: Digital Provenance Labels and Content Credibility |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Kevin Esterling | Kevin M. Esterling, Ben Treves, Kelton Adey, Euchan Jang | Using LLM Digital Twin Simulation to Evaluate the Emergent Properties of Human Group Interaction |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Rachel Fordham | Rachel Funk Fordham, Ernesto Tiburcio | Politically Mismatched Couples |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Kentaro Fukumoto | Kentaro Fukumoto | Reclustering: A New Method to Test the Appropriate Level of Clustering |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Amy Grauley & Shay Hafner | Amy Brooke Grauley, Shay Hafner | Method-Aware Respondents and the Reliability of Online Political Science Experiments |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Jeff Harden | Jeff Harden; Rachel Porter | Information Limits in Observational Studies |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Yusaku Horiuchi | Yusaku Horiuchi and Martha Johnson | To Compare or Not to Compare: Testing the Effects of Profile Comparison in Conjoint Analysis |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Hideo Ishima | Hideo Ishima | Strategic Emotion Arousal by Radical Right-wing Parties: Multimodal Analysis of Political Speeches |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Sekou Jabateh | Joan Barcelo, Sekou Jabateh | Walls of Peace: Can Public Memorials Shape Reconciliation? |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Connor Jerzak | Hamza Aziz Khan, Adel Daoud, Connor T. Jerzak | Agentic Heterogeneous Effects |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Diana Jordan | Diana Jordan; Sunshine Hillygus | Can AI-Driven Moderation Improve Conversation Quality and Openness on Social Media? |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Youngbin Kim | Youngbin Kim | Not One Story: Multiple Historical Trauma and the Politics of Remembering |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Jefferson Leal | Jefferson Leal | Ideology Measure with Partial Transfer Learning |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Hane Lee | Hane Lee | The Myth of the Static Middle: Independent Polarization and the Failures of Partisan Sorting |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Jason Liang | Jason Liang, Evan T. R. Rosenman | Interpretable Sample Uncertainty Measures for Ranked-Choice Election Polls |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | JB Jong Beom Lim | Kosuke Imai, JB Jong Beom Lim | GenAI Powered Treatment Discovery and Causal Effect Estimation |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Taegyun Lim | Taegyun Lim | Dependence, Bargaining, and Sanction Busting: Evidence from Export Controls on Russia |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Xinyi Liu | Xinyi Liu, Yilang Peng, Yingdan Lu | Mitigating Confounding Bias in Observational Visual Media Research: An LLM-Informed, Machine Learning-Based Inference Framework |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Hanning Luo | Hanning Luo, Yuhua Wang | Performative Compliance: How Chinese Scholars Navigate Ideological Control |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Kelsey Martin-Morales | Matthew C. Wilson, Kelsey Martin-Morales, Gregory Nelson | Sequential Bayesian Event Modeling of Democratic Backsliding |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Mellissa Meisels | Mellissa Meisels | Intraparty Candidate Divergence and Primary Participation |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Kodai Minesaki | Kodai Minesaki | Detecting Gender-Based Stylistic Changes in Parliamentary Debates Using Adversarial Concept Erasure |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Mitsuru Mukaigawara | Mitsuru Mukaigawara | The Containment Trap: How Efforts to Contain Epidemics Intensify Civil Conflict |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Kentaro Nakamura | Kentaro Nakamura | Estimating Algorithm-Induced Polarization and Media Distrust using Algorithm as Natural Experiment |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Noah Ochital | Noah Ochital, Ryan T. Moore | whatifbandit: Reimagining Traditional Randomized Experiments |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Betul Ozturan | Betul Ozturan | The Day After: Network Dynamics of Rebel Alliances and Governance Institutions in Syria |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Chanhyuk Park | Chanhyuk Park | Causal Inference with Ordinal Outcomes Using Normalizing Flows |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Gabrielle Péloquin-Skulski | Gabrielle Péloquin-Skulski | When It Bleeds It Doesn’t Lead: In-Group Promotion vs. Out-Group Attacks on Social Media |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Mason Reece | Mason Reece | Even Faster Ideal Point Estimation: Using Variational Autoencoders to Estimate Item-Response Theory Models |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Matthias Roesti | Matthias Roesti | Candles in the Wind? Corporate Green Speech and the Political Cycle |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Audrey Sachleben | Audrey Sachleben | Measuring Party Cohesion in the U.S. Congress |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Tosin Salau | Tosin Salau | Citizens' Unrest: Understanding Civilian Cooperation with Militant Groups Amid Subsidy Reductions |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Sina Shaikh | Bailey Flanigan, Melody Huang, Sina Shaikh | Designing Online Survey Quotas to Preserve Positivity |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Connor Stitt | Connor Stitt, Bruce Desmarais, Jeff Harden, Justin Kirkland | Estimating Latent Legislative Dependence with Boltzmann Machines |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Y. Emre Tapan | Y. Emre Tapan | Stance Is Not Construct: Validity Gaps in LLM Annotation of Political Attitudes |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Taylor Tokos | Taylor Tokos | Technical and Compositional Complexity: A Measurement Framework for Bill Complexity |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Yinxuan Wang | Bokai Qi, Yinxuan Wang | Measuring Latent Networks from Noisy Indicators: A Latent Space Approach |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Li-Hong Weng | Li-Hong Weng | When Efficiency Trumps Accountability: Authoritarian Legacies and Voters’ Demand for Accountability in Asian Democracies |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Jack Wippell | Jared Falkenberg Edgerton, Jack Gabriel Risien Wippell | Linking Events to Text: Attention-Based Framework for Event Media |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Xinyuan Yang | Xinyuan Yang | A Bayesian Spatiotemporal Framework for Predicting Conflict Intensity |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | SUN Yongzhi | SUN Yongzhi | Making Grievances Visible: Multimodal Strategies on Short Video Activism in China |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Shuli Zhang | Shuli Zhang | Crisis Management and Country Image: Application of Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis and Granger Causality Tests in Analyzing the Case of Peng Shuai’s Disappearance |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Yuhang Zhu | Yuhang Zhu | How Elites Frame Artificial Intelligence: Evidence from U.S. Newspaper Coverage via Targeted Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis |
| Thursday, July 16 | 5:00-6:30 PM | Poster Session 1 | Viktoria Zlomanova | Viktoria Zlomanova | Nervous Candidates in a Secure Regime: Elections and Responsiveness under One-Party Dominant Rule |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Joao Alipio-Correa | Joao Alipio-Correa | Detection and Partial Identification of Spillover Contamination Under Interference |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Jungbae An | Jungbae An | Contingent Congress: Shared Issue Attention in the U.S. House of Representatives, 1873-2010 |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Samuel Asher | Samuel G.Z. Asher | Combining Panel and Regression Discontinuity Designs |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Hennes-Michel Barnehl | Hennes-Michel Barnehl | Eye in the Sky - Detecting Conflict Events with Satellite Imagery |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Saloni Bhogale | Saloni Bhogale | The Political Roots of Legal Access: Evidence from Village Councils in India |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Lara Briggs | Lara Briggs | Power to the People? Electricity Outages and Populism in Italy 2008-2022 |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Nick Brouwer | Nick Brouwer | Power to Prosper: Self-Governance and Economic Development |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Myla Burton | Myla Burton | What Are We Comparing Against? Reference Distributions in Dynamic Political Models |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Keng-Chi Chang | Keng-Chi Chang, Cody Buntain | CommunityVLM: Convergent Divergence in Text and Images for Community-Aligned Image Generation |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Haohan Chen | Haohan Chen, Zhouhan Chen, Ziqi Mai, Kaidierdan Muzhapaer | Elite Populism: How @DOGE Attacked Democracy |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Yun Choi | Yun Choi | POLVIFIDEL: Evaluating and Improving the Political Fidelity of VLM-generated Image Captions |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Ross Cohen-Kristiansen | Ross Cohen-Kristiansen, Aleksandra Slavković, Cory McCartan | Valid inference after record linkage |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Andrés Cruz | Andrés Cruz | Sensitivity Bounds for Measurement Error Propagation |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Tatiana Paula da Cruz | Tatiana Paula da Cruz | Sacred Votes: How Evangelical Churches Influence Electoral Outcomes in Brazil |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | António Câmara | António Câmara | The Long Corrosion of Democratic Constraints in American Politics, 1873–2025 |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Noah Dasanaike | Noah Dasanaike | Zero-Shot Digitization of Historical Documents with Vision Language Models |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Lea Dinsing | Lea Dinsing, Kosuke Imai, Kentaro Nakamura | Causal Inference for High Dimensional Data: The Value of Auxiliary Outcomes and Convolutional Neural Networks |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Kadir Cihan Duran | Kadir Cihan Duran, Ted Hsuan Yun Chen, Bruce Desmarais | Belief Network Inference: Quantifying Attenuation Bias and Structural Noise in Ordinal Network Estimation |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Jun Fang | Jun Fang | Profit-Driven Polarization: The Algorithmic Market for Partisan Attention |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Lingyu (Jack) Fuca | Lingyu Fuca | Endogeneity Without External Instruments: Gaussian Copula-Based Identification and Inference in Political Science |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Da Gong | Da Gong, Andong Yan, Cantay Caliskan, Ezgi Siir Kibris | Strategic Alignment and Social Media Behavior of U.S. Politicians |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Nguyen Ha | Thao-Nguyen Ha, Erin York | All Eyes on War: Conflict Casualties and Global Attention |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Dagmar Heintze | Dagmar Heintze | Scaling Violence - Introducing an allegation-extraction and violation severity-scoring NLP pipeline for human rights violation measurement |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Taylor Hvidsten | Taylor Hvidsten | “Not to be political, but …”: Describing the Presence of Political Topics Across the Podcast Landscape |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Mujahed Islam | Mujahed Islam | Distance-Based Conjoint Experiments: Estimating Causal Effects from Empirical Benchmarks |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Alexis Jang | Alexis Jang | How Geopolitical Rivalry Undermines Women's Representation |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Joohye Jeong | Joohye Jeong | Stimuli Augmentation for Internal and External Validity in Experiments with Latent Treatments |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Garrett Vande Kamp | Garrett N Vande Kamp, L. Jason Anastasopoulos | Yes, Regression Can Produce Representative Estimates of Causal Effects |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Jack Kappelman | Jack Kappelman | Do Elections Change Personal Behavior? |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Jo Kim | Jo Kim, Michael Donnelly | When Predictive Accuracy Is Not Enough: Identification in Cross-Scale Harmonization of Ordinal Survey Data |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Hyein Ko | Hyein Ko, Yuehong Cassandra Tai, Nora Webb Williams | From Annotation to Oversight: A Pipeline Approach to Generative AI Evaluation |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Shiro Kuriwaki | Max Goplerud, Shiro Kuriwaki, Jens Wiederspohn, Adam Connor-Sax, Phillip Greengard | Modeling Complex Contingency Tables |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Sangmin Lee | Sangmin Lee; Randall W. Stone | Multinational Lobbyists: A Structural Approach to Lobbying and Foreign Direct Investment |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Zhiyu Li | Zhiyu Li, Michael B. Cerny | How Human Are Artificial Survey Responses? Benchmarking AI's Ability to Generate Silicon Samples |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Yen-Chieh Liao | Yen-Chieh Liao, Ting Luo and Slava Jankin | How Do 100+ LLMs Differ Politically? A Multi-Agent Approach to Measuring AI Ideology |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Zachary Lim | Zachary Lim | Hierarchical Propositions (HiPr): Engineering Richer Semantic Features in Text |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Jiehan Liu | Jiehan Liu | Auditing Measurement Uncertainty in LLM-Based Text Coding |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Shiyao Liu | Wenxin Lin, Shiyao Liu | To Impute or Not? A Causal Diagram Perspective |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Joseph Loffredo | Joseph Loffredo | Measuring Legislative Policy Changes with LLM-based Tools |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Samuel Martin | Samuel Morgan Martin | Decoding networks: open-weights LLMs for network data extraction |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Nina McMurry | Nina McMurry, Abhit Bhandari, and Chad Hazlett | Estimating Treatment Effects with Contingent Outcomes: Evidence from Senegal |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Jerry Min | Jerry Min | Nationality Bias in Regulatory Enforcement |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Donald Moratz | Donald Moratz, Sarah Gerstein | The Signaling Gap: State-Owned Media and the Strategic Management of Sentiment during the Russian Invasion of Ukraine |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Andrew Myers | Alexander Fouirnaies, Andrew Myers | Do Interest Group Endorsements Influence American Elections? Evidence from Congress and American State Legislatures |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Eunseong Oh | Eunseong Oh | Multimodal Measurement of Bipartisan Interaction |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Burak Ozturan | Burak Ozturan, David Lazer | Measuring Information Segregation |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Soyeon Park | Soyeon Park | Evolving Human Rights: Interpretation of UN Treaties Over Time |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Abhinav Ramaswamy | Abhi Ramaswamy & Nico Studen | Phantom Pre-Trends Under Compositional Changes in Difference-in-Differences |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Adam Roberts | Adam D Roberts | Beyond Borders: How Voters Process Information |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Yehzee Ryoo | Yehzee Ryoo | Civilian Harm and Public Support for War: How Intentionality Shape Moral Judgment and Public Opinion |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Arisa Sadeghpour | Arisa Sadeghpour | Isolating the Effects of Multiple Focal Elements within Textual Treatments |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Christine Semeniuk | Christine I. Semeniuk | Throwing the Party? Measuring National Influence on State Party Platforms |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Xiangyu Song | Xiangyu Song | Conformal Inference for Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment Effects with Experiment Attrition |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Cecilia (Yuan) Sui | Cecilia Y. Sui | Synthesizing Closeness: A Generative AI Experiment on Parasocial Signaling in Political Communication |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Jing Ling Tan | Kentaro Nakamura, Jing Ling Tan, George Yean | Text Classification without a Gold Standard: using LLMs for uncertain texts in social science research |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Phedias Theophanous | Phedias Theophanous | The Logic of Strategic Bias in Science |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Andy Wang | Jiawei Fu, Andy J. Wang | Targeted Representation Learning for Treatment Effect Estimation with Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Jens Wiederspohn | Jens Wiederspohn | Electing the Least Preferred: Evidence of Condorcet Losers in Germany |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Wenhui Yang | Wenhui Yang | Measuring Electoral Competitiveness in Japan’s Mixed-Member Parallel System: A Unified Candidate-Level Approach and a Regression Discontinuity Application |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Yongjai Yu | Yongjai Yu | Anchored Embedding Scaling for Measuring Presidential Policy Displacement |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Tamar Zeilberger | Tamar Zeilberger | Garbage In, Garbage Out? Systematic Error and Data-Driven Policy Making in China |
| Friday, July 17 | 5:30-7:00 PM | Poster Session 2 | Li Zhang | Li Zhang | Prior District Court Service Boosts Appellate Judges’ Propensity to Affirm: Evidence from U.S. Courts of Appeals, 2008 – 2024 |